Homo sapiens have until 2029 [5 years, at most] to engineer an assuredly safe new alien species: Artificial general intelligence (AGI).
Nicolai Tangen is CEO of Norges Bank Investment Management ($1.6 Trillion AUM)
AI is the fastest advancing technology that I’ve ever seen of any kind and I’ve seen a lot of Technology. Um you know barely a week goes by with without some new announcement so uh and if you look at the amount of uh AI Hardware the computers coming online that are dedicated to AI that is increasing what looks like at least by a factor of 10 every year if not every six to 9 months, so when you combine the hardware coming online really order of magnitude increase every you know call at least every 9 months, and many many software breakthroughs, if you look at that that curve, it looks insane. So I think we’ll um my guess is that we’ll have AI that is smarter than any any one human probably to around the end of next year um and then AI the total amount of sort of sentient compute of AI I think will probably exceed all humans in 5 years.
If you define AGI as smarter than the smartest human I think it’s probably end of next year like like within two years um but but that’s that there’s still there’s still a pretty big leap beyond that to say smarter than the the machine augmented human Collective so like is it smarter than all humans working together uh who are also using computers to augment their output and that that I think is probably five years.