“I really do think it’s very likely that we will, at some time, it’s not a question of if, it’s more of a question of when we will have a bird flu pandemic.. […] probably somewhere between 25 and 50 percent mortality.” — Robert Redfield, Former Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) Director
“Cattle live close to pigs and a lot of times in flu there’s been a relationship of flu going from pigs to humans as it’s trying to evolve and gaining The receptors it needs to go human to human. I’m less concerned though that this will happen through spillover and evolution in animals, I’m much more concerned that this will happen in the laboratory through gain of function research. I can create this virus literally in weeks to months by using gain of function research. I know exactly what amino acids I have to change because, in 2012 against my recommendation, the scientists that did these experiments actually published them. So the recipe for how to make bird flu highly infectious for humans is already out there all you have to do is is look.” — Robert Redfield, Former Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) Director
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THE HILL. Former CDC director predicts bird flu pandemic
BY LAUREN IRWIN – 06/15/24 9:43 AM ET
Former Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) Director Robert Redfield said he predicts a bird flu pandemic will happen — it’s just a matter of when that will be.
Redfield joined NewsNation on Friday to discuss the growing concern for bird flu, as the virus has been detected in dozens of cattle across the country, and the World Health Organization identified the first human death in Mexico.
“I really do think it’s very likely that we will, at some time, it’s not a question of if, it’s more of a question of when we will have a bird flu pandemic,” Redfield said.
He also noted that bird flu has a “significant mortality” when it enters humans compared to COVID-19. Redfield predicts the mortality is “probably somewhere between 25 and 50 percent mortality.” NewsNation noted that the death rate for COVID was 0.6 percent.
At the end of May, the CDC identified the third human case of someone diagnosed with the virus since March. None of the three cases among farmworkers were associated with one another. Symptoms have included a cough without fever and pink eye.
There is no evidence yet that the virus is spreading between humans. Redfield said he knows exactly what has to happen for the virus to get to that point because he’s done lab research on it.
Scientists have found that five amino acids must change in the key receptor in order for bird flu to gain a propensity to bind to a human receptor “and then be able to go human to human” like COVID-19 did, Redfield said.
“Once the virus gains the ability to attach to the human receptor and then go human to human, that’s when you’re going to have the pandemic,” he said. “And as I said, I think it’s just a matter of time.”
Redfield noted that he doesn’t know how long it will take for the five amino acids to change, but since it is being detected in cattle herds across the country, he is a bit concerned.
More than 40 cattle herds nationwide have confirmed cases of the virus. The CDC is tracking wastewater treatment sites to pinpoint where the virus is, but the agency said the general public’s current risk of contracting the virus is low.
Since cattle live close to pigs and the virus is able to evolve from pigs to humans, there is cause for concern. Still, he argued, there is greater risk for the disease to be lab-grown.
“I know exactly what amino acids I have to change because in 2012, against my recommendation, the scientists that did these experiments actually published them,” he said. “So, the recipe for how to make bird flu highly [infectious] for humans is already out there.”
TRANSCRIPT.
could we be on the verge of another pandemic and one that could be even worse than the one caused by Corona virus this time it could actually be bird flu let’s hope not the CDC is now calling for more testing for bird flu at America’s Farms sounding alarms after several Farm Workers contracted the disease from animals since 2003 there have been 888 confirmed human cases worldwide that’s according to the DC uh CDC but but here’s the scary part how half of those half of those patients died from the disease compare that to covid in which just 0.6% of people who tested positive actually died the fear now is that the bird flu is changing adapting and could spread to not just Birds but also cattle and pigs and then eventually spread from Human to human former CDC director Robert Redfield who helped oversee our country’s response to covid says it is definitely time to take this more seriously and Dr Redfield joins me live now it’s it’s always nice to see you do I remember you told Chris not long ago um that the bird flu could make Co covid look like a little pandemic which was quite alarming I mean is that really the case yes Brian I really do think it’s very likely that we will at some time it’s not a question of if it’s more of a question of when we will have a bird flu pandemic uh and uh as you mentioned unfortunately bird flu has uh when it does enter humans has a significant mortality probably somewhere between 25 and 50% mortality so it’s going to be quite complicated since 2019 we’ve had a progressive increase in bird flu in in chickens and ducks and turkeys in our country and since then you’ve seen it now go into a number of mammals it’s now in over 25 different mammals I think now with the llamas recently is now in 27 mammals in the United States why is that important is we know exactly what has to happen for bird flu to be infectious for humans and go human to human scientists in 2012 actually did experiments in the lab using gain of function research which I’m not in favor of but the scientists did it and they figured the five amino acids that have to change in the key receptor in order for bird flu to gain a propensity to bind to the human receptor and then be able to go human to human something that obviously happened with covid where Co obviously learned how to use the H2 receptor in humans and then of course became a very infectious virus those five amino acids huge so I was just wondering if it’s going to go if it does hopefully it won’t if it goes human to human though is it like Co where if you cough someone else can get it is that how it spreads or does it spread a different way no it’s likely spread through aerosol and droplets is how it’s going to eventually spread and once once the virus gains the ability to attach to the human receptor uh and then go human to human that’s when you’re going to have the pandemic and as I said I think it’s just a matter of time normally the five amino acid changes is a huge a huge species barrier um so who knows how long that will take but as it goes into more and more different mammals it changing its use of receptors it’s changing it’s changing it’s learning how to use different receptors for dolphins and seals and uh it’s learning how to use receptors in bears and polar bears and foxes and raccoons and cats so it’s going through a lot of changes and it’s as it picks up some of these new receptors it can get closer and closer to humans recently in cattle you know where it was recently described and now is in significant number of cattle in the United States um you know I’m concerned about that because cattle uh live close to pigs and a lot of times in flu uh there’s been a relationship of flu going from pigs to humans as it’s trying to evolve and gaining The receptors it needs to go human I’m less concerned though that this will happen through uh spillover and evolution in animals I’m much more concerned that this will happen in the laboratory through gain of function research okay I can I can create this virus literally in weeks to months by using gain of function research I know exactly what amino ASDS I have to change because in 2012 against my recommendation the scientists that did these experiments actually published them so the recipe for how to make bird flu highly infectious for humans is already out there all you have to do is is look it that’s creepy to think about it’s creepy to think about Dr Redfield and we know what can go wrong with the possibility of how Co started in the lab and uh you know the fact that these diseases can be weaponized is very scary to think about we will we’ll stay on top of it with your help uh Dr Robert Redfield thank you so much for coming on we appreciate it hey thank you for watching please go to newsnation now.com newsnation now.com and you can find newsnation on your television provider and don’t forget to click the red subscribe button down below then you will get more of news nation’s fact dream driven coverage