“My p(doom) is higher than most people’s [70%]. I want to inject a note of humility here- like the P(doom) thing is more of a vibe than a serious number because it’s an inherently unpredictable sort of situation. I think that I feel much more confident about my timelines. I think this is something that I have expertise in- like I was hired to OpenAI to try to forecast the future of AI and I’ve spent years trying to do that and I think it’s, you know, there’s now lots of evidence that you can draw from scaling laws, trends on benchmarks and so forth. So I do feel somewhat confident in my claim that AGI could happen in the next few years.” — Daniel Kokotajlo
The OpenAI whistle-blower Daniel Kokotajlo speaks in one of his first public interviews about why he risked almost $2 million in equity to warn of what he calls the reckless culture inside that company.
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