47,218 views 29 Oct 2024 Tesla and SpaceX CEO Elon Musk, speaking at the Future Investment Initiative in Saudi Arabia, discusses artificial intelligence, population growth, the development of humanoid robots and his plans to send uncrewed starships to Mars in two years.
“I think it will be able to do anything that any human can do. Possibly within the next year or two. And then… how much longer does it take to be able to do what all humans can do combined? Not long. Probably three years from that point. So 2029 ish 2028. Something like that. Yeah. It’s most likely going to be great. And there’s some chance which could be 10 to 20 percent that it goes bad. [P(doom)… ‘summoning the demon’] The chance is not zero that it goes bad.” — Elon Musk, 29 Oct 2024
we spoke last in March at the abundance Summit your prediction was that AI was increasing at a rate as fast as a 100 times per year and that by 2029 or 2030 we might see AI as capable as 8 billion humans are you still seeing that pace yeah it’s it’s difficult it’s difficult thing to quantify exactly but um I certainly feel comfortable saying that it’s getting 10 times better per year which is you know let’s say it’s you know 4 years from now that would mean 10,000 times better so maybe 100,000 yeah and it’s it’s it’s it I think it will be able to do anything that any human can do um possibly within with the next uh year year or two and then uh what what can how long how much longer than that does it take to be able to do what all humans can do combined I think not not long probably only I don’t know 3 years from that point so it like 20 20 29 is 28 something like that the other conversation we’ve had and you came out in the same side as Jeffrey Hinton in this was 80% probability it’s going to be awesome 20% probability we’re screwed are you still you still on those odds yeah I mean one can say it’s it’s it’s it’s most likely going to be great and there’s there’s some chance which could be 10 to 20% that um it goes bad um the chance is not zero that it goes bad but overall one one could say the cup is 80% full uh is one positive way to look at it maybe 90% both rates have been collapsing pretty much worldwide um and we’re headed to you know a situation where for example based on current birth rates uh South Korea would have about a third of its current population have much less um Europe would have about half it’s current current population halfs much less and I should say those numbers are if the birth rate were suddenly to return to St to to 2.1 per woman which is a stability Point um which is is not doing so if the if the current compounding uh effect continues um you would see really um many countries become 5% of their current size or less within three generations I know you’ve been doing I would consider that to be a very big very big problem um and and I think it for most countries they should view the birth rate as as the single biggest problem they need to solve um I mean if you don’t make new humans there’s no humanity and and all the policies in the world don’t matter I know you’ve been doing your part to maintain the birth rate in in the US yes I am I mean you know it’s you’ve got to Walk The Talk um so I do have a lot of kids and I encourage others to have lot of kids I think we’ll be we’ll be able to launch some Starships to Mars in two years um so at the the next Mars window which is in about 26 27 months but we’re just about to start uh or we’re we’re at the beginning of of a mar Transit window now and they occur every 26 months so um just over two years we’ll be sending our first uncrewed Starships to Mars and then if those if those work out well and we don’t increment the crater accounts on M then we’ll send humans uh two years out of that every country will have uh AIS or multiple AIS so um and there will be a lot of robots there’ll be a lot of robots but we had more robots and people yeah let’s have that conversation second because people are concerned about uh as you said dwindling populations Ai and and robots have potential to help support the GDP um yes congratulations on Optimus 2 and soon Optimus 3 uh your prediction on the number of robots by 2040 humanoid robots to be specific what order magnitude by 2040 yeah so uh um I think by if you say like 2040 probably there are more humanoid robots than ra people
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Elon Musk: “With AI we are summoning the demon” (2014)
Innovations – The Washington Post
Elon Musk: ‘With artificial intelligence we are summoning the demon.’
By Matt McFarland, October 24, 2014 at 2:37 p.m. EDT
Tesla chief executive Elon Musk has warned about artificial intelligence before, tweeting that it could be more dangerous than nuclear weapons. Speaking Friday at the MIT Aeronautics and Astronautics department’s Centennial Symposium, Musk called it our biggest existential threat:
Musk spoke expansively for over an hour, at one point even asking a MIT student what his favorite sci-fi books were. He left to a standing ovation. You can watch the entire interview here.