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Sample P(doom) values – Wikipedia

NameP(doom)Notes
Yann Le Cun<0.01%[13][Note 6]Chief AI Scientist at Meta
Demis Hassabis>0%[15]Co-founder and CEO of Google DeepMind and Isomorphic Labs
Grady Boochc. 0%[1][Note 4]American software engineer
Marc Andreessen0%[12]American businessman
Emmet Shear5–50%[6]Co-founder of Twitch and former interim CEO of OpenAI
Casey Newton5%[1]American technology journalist
Dario Amodei10–25%[6]CEO of Anthropic
Elon Musk10–20%[9]Businessman and CEO of X, Tesla, and SpaceX
Geoffrey Hinton10%-50%[6][Note 1]AI researcher, formerly of Google
Jan Leike10–90%[1]AI alignment researcher at Anthropic, formerly of DeepMind and OpenAI
Vitalik Buterin10%[1]Cofounder of Ethereum
Toby Ord10%[14]Australian philosopher and author of The Precipice
Lina Khan15%[6]Chair of the Federal Trade Commission
Yoshua Bengio20%[3][Note 2]Computer scientist and scientific director of the Montreal Institute for Learning Algorithms
Paul Christiano50%[10]Head of research at the US AI Safety Institute
Emad Mostaque50%[16]Co-founder of Stability AI
Dan Hendrycks80%+ [1][Note 3]Director of Center for AI Safety
Eliezer Yudkowsky95%+ [1]Founder of the Machine Intelligence Research Institute
Roman Yampolskiy99.9%[11][Note 5]Latvian computer scientist

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